Recently, according to the analysis of China Industry Research Network, China's paper industry supply growth will continue to slow down. According to the project that the company in the industry put into operation and put into production in 2011-2015, it is estimated that in the next five years, the increment of papermaking in our country will be about 35 million tons. By 2015, the total output of China's paper industry will reach 135 million tons. And the average annual growth rate of cardboard production is about 6% -7%.
The slowdown in supply growth stems from the declining growth rate of the industry's future demand. Some people said that according to the paper consumption between 2000 and 2010 and its relationship with the economy, after 2007, the consumption of paper products declined year by year, significantly lower than the growth rate of GDP growth, and showed signs of accelerating decline. It is estimated that the annual average consumption of paper products will maintain around 6% in the next five years.
Despite the slowdown in the overall supply of the industry, the annual growth rate of "boom" paper products is still as high as 15% -20%. The development momentum is stronger than that of the general industry. According to reports, corrugated and cardboard annual growth rate will reach 18% -20%. It is predicted that in 2013, China will overtake the United States and become the world's largest producer of corrugated and cardboard paper.
At the same time, experts predict that the development of high-grade wrapping paper will also have more room for growth of up to 15%. Compared with the developed countries, the consumer spending on wrapping paper in China is very low. The cost of packaging per person in the United States is 311 US dollars per year, that of Japan is 460 US dollars and that of Europe is 385 US dollars, while that of China is about 12 US dollars, 3% -4%. As China's economy continues to grow, the process of urbanization continues to accelerate. The trend of consumption upgrading will push white paperboard to replace consumption of coated white paper. It is estimated that the CAGR will reach 15% in the next three years. Now that recycled tissue has enjoyed a relatively high penetration rate in developed countries, and our country is in the period of import and development, the industry expects that there will be a huge supply and demand gap of about 700,000 tons by 2015.